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Global energy demand will increase by 1/3 in the next 25 years

Global energy demand will increase by 1/3 in the next 25 years

  • Categories:Industrial Trend
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  • Time of issue:2018-11-05 08:16
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Global energy demand will increase by 1/3 in the next 25 years

(Summary description)BP recently released the "BP Energy Outlook 2018" (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook") pointed out that in the next 25 years, global energy demand will increase by 1/3, half of which will come from the industrial sector. The increase in energy demand in the transportation industry will slow down. From a regional perspective, energy demand in developing countries continues to grow, and half of the increase in global energy demand will come from China and India.

  • Categories:Industrial Trend
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-11-05 08:16
  • Views:
Information

BP recently released the "BP Energy Outlook 2018" (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook") pointed out that in the next 25 years, global energy demand will increase by 1/3, half of which will come from the industrial sector. The increase in energy demand in the transportation industry will slow down. From a regional perspective, energy demand in developing countries continues to grow, and half of the increase in global energy demand will come from China and India.

At the same time, from a global perspective, electrification is the future trend. 70% of the primary energy increase comes from the power sector; renewable energy is growing rapidly, accounting for 40% of the primary energy increase; the demand for natural gas is growing rapidly, and the demand for LNG continues to increase; coal Demand has stabilized.

  Industry currently consumes about half of the global energy. Civil and commercial energy consumption accounts for 29%, and transportation energy consumption accounts for 20%. Energy demand in the construction industry has grown strongly. Refrigeration systems, lighting facilities and household electrical appliances are the main driving forces for the growth of energy demand in the construction sector; in the transportation sector, the increase in energy demand is slow due to the increase in energy efficiency of transportation.

  In the industrial sector, natural gas and electricity provide a guarantee for the growth of energy demand in the industrial sector. By 2040, natural gas and electricity will account for two-thirds of industrial energy demand. The conversion of coal to gas has changed the share of energy in the industrial sector, especially in China. At present, China's coal share in the industrial sector has been reduced by one-third, and by 2040, its share in the industrial sector will be reduced by approximately one-quarter. At the same time, low-income countries consume a lot of energy in the industrial sector, and emerging Asian and African countries such as India account for 70% of the increase in industrial energy consumption.

  In the field of transportation, energy efficiency improvements have restrained the increase in fuel for cars and motorcycles to a certain extent; with the increase in global freight activities, the fuel demand for trucks has grown rapidly. "Outlook" shows that despite the gradual development of natural gas vehicles and electric vehicles, fuel vehicles still dominate the transportation field.

  From a regional perspective, the economic development and life improvement of emerging countries have promoted the growth of world energy demand. From 2018 to 2040, China and India each accounted for a quarter of the global energy increase. As China shifts to a more sustainable development model, China's energy demand growth has slowed significantly. By 2040, China's increased share of energy demand will be mainly composed of renewable energy, accounting for about 80%.

  In contrast, Indian energy is driven by strong economic growth and will become the country with the largest increase in energy demand in the world. Coal will become the main energy source for India's economic development. By 2040, coal will account for about 45% of the increase in energy demand, and 70% of the increase in coal demand will go to the power sector.

   By 2040, the United States will still be the country with the largest natural gas consumption and the second largest oil consumption in the world. At the same time, the United States will lose its status as the world's largest renewable energy development country, and the proportion of renewable energy in the energy structure will drop from the current 24% to 15%. In contrast, China's share of renewable energy in the energy structure will increase to 30%.

   Africa’s population growth and productivity increase will increase its demand for energy. From 2035 to 2040, the increase in energy demand in Africa will exceed that of China. By 2040, most of the increase in energy demand in the Middle East will consist of natural gas.

   EU countries continue to develop towards a low-carbon economy. By 2040, energy consumption in EU countries will be roughly the same as in 1975, but gross domestic product (GDP) will be more than three times higher than in 1975. At the same time, non-fossil fuels account for 40% of energy demand, which is significantly higher than the world average (25%).

   "Outlook" pointed out that the global energy pattern has gradually shown a common development trend of multiple energy forms. By 2040, oil, natural gas, coal and non-fossil fuels will each account for a quarter of the global energy structure.


  In the oil field, OPEC will produce approximately 6 million barrels of oil per day by 2040, and the crude oil supply of non-OPEC oil producing countries will be 5 million barrels per day.

  In the field of natural gas, by 2040, U.S. natural gas production will account for 25% of the total global natural gas production, and the countries in the Middle East and the CIS will each account for 20%. In terms of LNG, LNG exports from the United States and Qatar will account for half of the total global LNG exports by 2040. LNG supply will increase by 40% in the next 5 years. By the early 1920s, the global LNG transportation volume will exceed the natural gas pipeline transportation volume.

  In the coal field, China will still be the world's largest coal market by 2040, accounting for 40% of global coal demand. Most of the OECD countries are restricted by environmental protection policies and demand for coal is reduced. Among them, the low cost of natural gas production in the United States has prompted a decline in coal demand.

   In the field of renewable energy, global renewable energy has grown strongly, and its share of power generation in the power sector has gradually increased. By 2030, China will be the country with the largest increase in renewable energy, followed by India.

This article is transferred from China Coal News Network

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