Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Signing and Performance of the 2019 Long-term Coal Association Contract” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”). Compared with last year, this year clearly stated that it encourages and supports more contracts with complete quantities and prices for more than 2 years. Medium and long-term contracts, and pointed out that in principle, the new railway capacity in 2019 should give priority to guaranteeing the demand for medium and long-term coal contracts.

The notice stated that under the situation that demand for thermal coal has increased sharply this year and market coal prices have fluctuated, medium and long-term contracts have played an important role in stabilizing supply and demand and coal prices. All relevant parties should make early deployment, early arrangements, and early actions, seize the current favorable opportunity, and early sign medium and long-term contracts with a relatively fixed quantity and a clear price mechanism. The number of medium and long-term contracts signed by the central government and various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and other coal and power generation enterprise groups above designated size should reach more than 75% of its own resources or purchases, and should not be lower than the previous year's level.

Approaching the end of 2018, the 2019 long-term price negotiation period is approaching, and both coal and electricity parties have begun to enter the game again.

The reporter learned that Shenhua announced the long-term cooperative price in December. The monthly long-term cooperative price of 5,500 kcal is 631 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous month. The annual long-term cooperative price is 555 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. Ton.

The Haitong Securities Research Report pointed out that since the price setting still adopts the "base price + floating price" mechanism, the negotiation will still be implemented at the level not higher than 2018. The current market price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qingang is 627 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the benchmark price in 2018 (535 yuan/ton). Therefore, encouraging coal power companies to sign long-term agreements will help stabilize the transaction, but not change the power The downward trend of coal prices.

Zhang Feilong, a researcher at Yimei Information, told reporters that the long-term association's price center should move downward as a whole, and will not increase year by year.

“The monthly long-term price agreement in December will definitely decrease compared to November. The long-term price agreement is mainly determined by the trend of coal prices.” Jinlianchuang coal analyst Bi Fangjing told reporters that the domestic momentum since December The coal market basically continues its previous weakness, and high inventory and low demand are the main pressures on the current market. At present, there are few inquiries on the market, and the transactions are deserted. Although coal consumption is gradually increasing, the demand is not strong. In the short term, industrial electricity consumption will hardly pick up, so the daily consumption of power plants will not increase significantly.

In fact, since this year, coal prices have been relatively stable at a "high" level.

According to the “Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Three Quarters of 2018” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) issued by the China Electricity Council, according to China’s coastal coal procurement price index, the CECI5500 kcal comprehensive The price fluctuation range for the first three quarters was 571 yuan/ton to 635 yuan/ton, and the prices of each period exceeded the upper limit of the green range specified in the "Memorandum on Stabilizing Abnormal Price Fluctuations in the Coal Market".

Benefiting from this, coal companies are still making a lot of money this year.

On November 27, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to October this year, the coal mining and washing industry achieved a total profit of 256.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

In contrast, the life of thermal power companies is not easy. The above report also pointed out that from January to August, the thermal power industry's asset profit margin was only 1.1%, and the national thermal power loss was 47.3%.

Therefore, during the new round of coal power negotiations, the Development and Reform Commission and other departments hope that both coal and power parties can sign medium and long-term contracts.

What needs to be mentioned is that since the beginning of winter, the daily consumption of power plants has been at a low level, the inventory of power plants has continued to rise, downstream demand is weak, and coal prices have lacked motivation to increase.

"The coal market is very weak now, and we all count on this wave of cold air." Zhang Feilong also said that the focus of the future market is still on the speed and magnitude of the daily consumption rebound. When will the pull effect of terminal replenishment on thermal coal market prices appear? . Entering December, seasonal changes in daily consumption will be the key to the trend of coal prices before.

Bi Fangjing believes that the national power plant inventory is basically at a high level and the railway transportation capacity is constantly improving, resulting in relatively loose coal supply and demand. This winter is doomed to be "not busy in peak season", and the probability of stable operation of coal prices is relatively high; therefore, it is expected that next year 1 The monthly long-term price agreement is basically the same as that in December. (Reporter Li Chunlian)

This article is transferred from China Coal News Network

More company information

Welcome to pay attention to [Jingji Technology Co., Ltd.] WeChat public account