On December 1, there is no doubt that history will remember this day.
On this day, in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina, the heads of state of China and the United States held a historic dinner meeting.
According to State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi, the meeting was friendly and frank and lasted for two and a half hours, which was far beyond the scheduled time. The two sides reached a consensus to stop imposing new tariffs. The White House spokesperson also commented that the dinner between the two was a "very successful meeting."
The most critical are the following two paragraphs in the Xinhua News Agency draft:
The two sides decided to stop escalating tariffs and other trade restrictive measures, including no longer increasing the existing tariff rates for each other, and not introducing new tariffs on other commodities.
The two heads of state instructed the economic and trade teams of the two sides to step up consultations and reach an agreement to cancel the tariffs imposed since this year, and to push bilateral economic and trade relations back to normal track as soon as possible to achieve a win-win situation.
At the same time, comparing the statement issued by the US, the meaning is also very clear:
1. The Sino-US trade war will no longer escalate, and the two sides will no longer impose new tariffs;
2. The US originally imposed additional tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods, but after January 1st, it will remain at 10%, instead of the 25% previously announced;
3. The two sides will step up negotiations. Once an agreement is reached through negotiations, all tariffs imposed since this year may be cancelled.
Undoubtedly, this is a very positive and major development, although new twists and turns are not ruled out later.
Looking at the trade war for more than half a year, it has been a climax and thrilling. It is more dramatic than a drama and a roller coaster than a roller coaster. For the negotiation team of both parties, the biggest test may not be jet lag or strategy, but a good heart.
The Sino-US trade war has thus entered a whole new stage. In Bullpiano's view, at least three clear and heavy signals have been released.
Signal 1, China’s determination and position to defend its core interests is consistent and firm as a rock.
In all, this unprecedented trade game has lasted more than half a year from spring to winter.
In this struggle that will inevitably go down in history, a prominent bright spot is: China's determination and position to firmly defend its core interests is consistent and rock-solid, even if it is facing the United States, as long as it violates the bottom line, we must fight back. And it is a powerful counterattack.
You know, Trump has repeatedly declared that the trade war is simple, and the United States will definitely win. Using extreme means to exert pressure has always been Trump's masterpiece, and it is also his self-proclaimed "art of trading."
He thought that as long as the US$50 billion tariff card was released, China would definitely be soft; if 50 billion did not work, then another 200 billion US dollars would be added; if not, then continue to increase.
But China is not another country. Every time the United States imposes tariffs, what is waiting for is a counterattack from the central government. I'm sorry for the results of the previous negotiations, but in the end they all "blow". So much so that American soybeans can only be stacked in American warehouses.
In the white paper "Facts on Sino-US Economic and Trade Frictions and China’s Position" published on September 24, China made it clear that China firmly safeguards its national dignity and core interests. China is unwilling to fight, not afraid to fight, or not when necessary. Do not hit.
In a word: talk, the door is open; fight, accompany to the end. Never expect China to swallow the bitter fruit that harms its own interests.
Of course, China is also very clear that there is no winner in the trade war, and China will pay a huge price for it, but this is for the long-term national interest and for the world's free trade order.
In fact, the escalating trade war has also cast a shadow over the U.S. economy and stock market. On the surface, the U.S. has a very tough attitude, but it is actually under heavy pressure and hopes to reach an agreement as soon as possible.
Only then did the two sides take a step back on December 1, China and the United States reached an important consensus, and economic and trade frictions entered a new stage.
The second signal is that the diplomacy of the head of state has played an inestimable role in Sino-US relations.
At some key points in history, key figures always play a pivotal role or even rewrite history.
The New York Times commented that in Argentina this time, apart from the China-U.S. summit, China and the United States did not arrange any other formal meetings, which shows that the personal feelings and games of the two top leaders have largely dominated. The relationship between the two countries.
This is a major and far-reaching change in Sino-US diplomacy.
Counting from March 22, during the entire Sino-US trade friction period, according to media reports, the top leaders of China and the United States had a total of two phone calls, and another formal meeting was held in Argentina during the G20.
Every contact is at a key node; the shots at each key node have played a role in turning the tide, avoiding the complete derailment of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and also pointing out a new direction for the deadlocked teams of both sides.
This may be an important reason why the economic and trade teams of the two sides did not hold talks in Washington or Beijing this time, but came directly to Argentina.
Of course, leaders are more to determine principles and indicate directions, and specific consultations also require the implementation of the negotiating team. China firmly defends its core interests, but it has also adopted very flexible measures in some specific measures.
The source revealed to bullpiano that in response to the 53 so-called “structural issues” raised by the United States, the Chinese side subdivided them into 142 sub-items, and broadly classified them as possible according to China’s system, laws and regulations, and deepening reform and opening up. There are three major categories: obligatory, negotiable and unacceptable.
The unrealistic demands of the United States must be returned without hesitation; however, some reasonable concerns may be addressed actively. For example, expanding imports from countries including the United States will actually help meet the Chinese people’s growing needs for a better life, promote high-quality economic development, and contribute to the formation of domestic competitive markets.
Of course, it is also not polite to come and go. According to sources, China has also raised its solemn concerns to the United States, especially some issues that the United States has not resolved for a long time, and the United States has also responded positively.
This is a win-win situation.
Negotiation is the art of compromise. In the past half a year, the two parties should have seen scenes where they slapped the table and stared at each other, but in the end, to reach a mutually acceptable agreement, equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect must be reached.
December 1 is a new beginning, and the next step is definitely more arduous specific negotiations.
The third signal is that it is most important to look at new changes with a normal heart and do your own affairs well.
Looking back over the past half a year, there is always a feeling that the American style of play is like boxing, aggressive and constantly increasing; China seems to be Tai Chi, which uses softness to overcome strength and weakness to overcome strength.
Especially in the past two months, unlike the intensive release of various voices in the United States, China seems to have entered a certain period of silence, and it feels more and more calm and calm.
now it's right.
This is a trade war, but it is a war of public opinion and a psychological war. The comparison of strength between China and the United States determines that no one has the ability to completely win. And without a strong heart and coping wisdom, it will definitely be unable to match the "art of trading" that the United States is pressing.
Quite simply, the United States is sharpening its knives. If China panics and panics, doesn't it hit the other side?
Therefore, we have seen that since the trade war, China has neither lost its mind because of the bullying offense by the other side, nor has it panicked because of the unprecedented scale of the trade war.
The reason is also very simple. It is true that the United States is the world's largest economy. It is indeed very important for China to do a good job with the United States; but more importantly, it is to do well in China's own affairs.
In fact, while the Sino-US trade war continues to escalate, China has been systematically advancing the opening up. The initiative to lower tariffs four times within a year and the gathering of thousands of businessmen at the first Shanghai International Import Expo fully demonstrated China's determination to open up and the charm of the market. In the World Bank’s latest Doing Business Report, China’s ranking has risen by 32 places compared with the previous year, which impressed the world.
China is no longer what it was 40 years ago. As the second largest economy in the world, China has a huge market, a complete industrial chain, convenient infrastructure and business environment that no country wants to lose and is irreplaceable. The greatest confidence to deal with the trade war.
Let the market truly play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and let reform and opening up bring more solid gains to the people. The top and bottom are concentric, and the profit cuts gold. Why should China be afraid?
It must be emphasized that we still have to deal with the recent positive changes. Don't forget that China and the United States once reached a consensus, but the United States unilaterally tore up the joint statement and insisted on launching a trade war, which eventually led to intensified trade wars.
If there is no credibility, if you continue to ask for prices, we really do not rule out that there will be new twists and turns. After all, according to the disclosed information, if the two parties fail to reach an agreement within 90 days, the United States is likely to repeat the same trick and increase the 10% tariff to 25%.
Therefore, the next two sides will still be fighting wits. For China, we must strive for the best results, but we must still prepare for the worst.
Everything in the past is a prologue.
2018 is drawing to a close. Looking back a few years later, this is indeed a very crucial year for China.
December 1, perhaps also a certain number of days in the dark, just over 10 hours before China and the United States reached a framework consensus, former US President Bush Sr. completed his 94-year-old life.
Among all American presidents, Bush Sr. has the deepest connection with China: he is the only president who has lived and worked in China for a long time. He and his wife Barbara have both studied Chinese and both like to ride. Cycling around Beijing’s streets and alleys, after returning to the United States, the couple would go to a Chinese restaurant to have a roast duck and toothpaste festival.
During the two presidents Bush and his son, China and the United States also had conflicts, frictions, and even fierce struggles, but in the end they respected each other and maintained cooperation at all levels. In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Bush Jr. brought his father, wife and children to Beijing to watch the Olympic games.
China and the United States should not be enemies. With regard to his efforts to improve relations with China, Bush Sr. once said this sentence: History will prove me correct.
History has proven this, but history needs more visionary leaders. Treat the other party as a friend, and the other party may become a friend; when you treat the other party as an enemy, the other party will often become an enemy.
At the APEC Business Leaders Summit held not long ago, China’s top leader’s words won the world’s applause. He said this:
History tells us that if we embark on a path of confrontation, no matter whether it is a cold war, a hot war or a trade war, there will be no real winners. As long as countries treat each other as equals, mutual understanding and accommodation, there will be no problems that cannot be resolved through consultation.
It's really loud.
An era has its problems. The problem itself is not terrible, the key is to take the right approach to solve the problem. This undoubtedly tests the wisdom, strategy and courage of both China and the United States, and of course, integrity!
Things are changing. Cooperation is the best choice for China and the United States. However, China is still not careless now!