Coal experts take the pulse of the 2019 coal market: fluctuations will become weaker and weaker

Shanghai Securities News (Reporter Wang Wenyan) coal industry experts said at the 2018 China Coal and Coal Chemical Industry Conference held recently that as coal supply further increases, the way of supply-side reform and regulation of the market becomes more flexible, and the coal market will fluctuate more and more. weak.

　　 In the past three years since the start of the supply-side structural reform, the development environment of the coal industry has been significantly improved. However, coal prices fluctuate from time to time. Recently, the domestic thermal coal market has steadily weakened, and the mainstream trading price of 5,500 kcal in northern ports has remained at 645-650 yuan/ton. In terms of downstream demand, last week, the coal inventory of coastal power plants increased by 204,100 tons from the previous month. As of November 9, the inventory of the six coastal power plants was 17.062,500 tons, with a daily consumption of 527,900 tons, and the number of days available for coal storage was 32.32 days.

　　 Feng Yu, vice chairman of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, believes that this year's power plant inventory situation has undergone a very big change, starting to replenish inventory during the peak season, which is one of the important factors that support the current stability of coal prices. Given that the inventory is already very high, it is unlikely that coal prices will rise sharply.

　　 Looking ahead to the coal market next year, Feng Yu believes that the international trade situation will significantly suppress the upstream coal and other energy markets. With the release of advanced production capacity, coal supply will further increase. However, the resilience of the domestic macro-economy has a greater support for coal demand, and the overweight infrastructure construction is positive for the coal market. Overall, the growth rate of coal demand in 2019 has slowed down compared with 2018. However, the supply-side reform and regulation of the market will be more flexible: First, the capacity reduction work is nearing completion, which will have less impact on the actual supply of the market; second, the advanced production capacity will gradually reach full capacity production, and some large-scale coal mines are under construction and expansion. Will be put into production one after another; the third is to establish a national coal trading center, increase the proportion of annual long-term cooperation, and further enhance the stability of coal supply.

　　 Lu Yanchun, director of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that striving to maintain the stable operation of the market and prices of coal and important coal chemical products is an objective need for the stable and healthy operation of the country’s macroeconomic and people’s livelihood. In order to give play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources, governments at all levels must also strengthen market supervision. Industry associations, futures exchanges, professional institutions, and the majority of enterprises also have important responsibilities as market entities. It is even more important to prevent the prices of coal as a basic energy source and important coal chemical products as basic raw materials from fluctuating sharply.

This article is transferred from China Coal News Network

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