World and China's Energy Outlook in 2050 released
On September 18, the China Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology released the 2018 edition of the "World and China's Energy Outlook in 2050" ("Outlook"), which pointed out that under the general situation of clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy transition, my country's energy development is new and old. With continuous conversion, the proportion of energy used by the consumer-side industrial sector will fall, while residential buildings and travel energy will steadily increase, and energy demand will shift from focusing on economy to higher quality requirements. The global output of old oilfields is accelerating, and a breakthrough in resource discovery is urgently needed.
"Outlook" pointed out that the positive correlation between global energy demand and economic development will gradually weaken in the future. From 2015 to 2050, the world will support 170% economic growth with 36% energy growth, and the consumption intensity will drop by half in 35 years. Clean energy will account for more than half. Zhang Pinxian, deputy general manager of PetroChina's Planning and Planning Department, pointed out that there is more than one path to achieve transformation, but lower cost is the core of the same environmental protection effect and convenience.
As China's urbanization and industrialization progress in depth, energy consumption demand will also shift from production energy to life energy. "Outlook" believes that the energy consumption of my country's industrial sector will reach its peak in 2025, while the energy consumption of high-end manufacturing will continue to grow. This change will directly bring the proportion of coal to 17%, natural gas to 15%, and oil to remain at about 20% in 2050.
Wang Lining, chief engineer of the Petroleum Market Institute of the Economic and Technical Research Institute, believes that the shift in focus from energy use in production to energy use in daily life demonstrates the shift from "sufficiency" to "good" in the energy development stage. With energy production as the focus, energy economy is in a prominent position, because the industrial sector has a large demand for energy and is highly price sensitive. The focus on energy consumption in life requires higher energy quality.
In the future, global oil production will also face huge challenges. The "Outlook" predicts that the global output of existing oil fields will drop from the current 3.6 billion tons to less than 1.2 billion tons in 2050, an average annual decline of 3.2%, which is equivalent to reducing two Daqing oil fields in the world every year. By then, the output of newly discovered oil fields will account for more than 30%. my country is expected to be able to maintain 200 million tons of production by 2030, mainly relying on the rapid increase in newly proven reserves, enhanced oil recovery and unconventional tight oil. By then, oil demand will also reach 700 million tons, which means that the next 10 years of crude oil The degree of external dependence will continue to remain high above 70%.
"Outlook" believes that China's natural gas golden development period will last until 2040. The growth rate of natural gas consumption will peak in 2020, and then the growth rate will decline. Natural gas consumption in 2050 will be close to 700 billion cubic meters, and domestic production is expected to be 350 billion cubic meters, of which unconventional gas will account for half of domestic production.
Zhang Yuqing, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, believes that to increase the country's exploration and development efforts and maintain the output of 200 million tons of crude oil, my country has a resource base. The key is how to activate unused reserves. This requires the joint efforts of policy overweight, system reform, technological innovation, energy saving and cost reduction.
This article is transferred from China Petroleum News