"For large coal-consuming countries, there is a fair and economically feasible energy transition path"

The French think tank Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) released a new report on September 5, Paris time, showing that it is feasible to eliminate coal in major coal-consuming countries such as China, Germany, and India in the next 20 to 30 years. This is beneficial from a social and economic point of view.

The report named "Coal Transitions" pointed out:

Major coal-consuming countries can effectively phase out coal without significantly increasing the cost of electricity for consumers, while gaining economic and social benefits from the transition to emerging industries;

The global thermal coal consumption peaks and declines faster than previously shown: coal demand may reverse before 2025;

Formulating a coal transformation strategy is more urgent than ever, as underlying economic and social preferences are turning against coal;

Major exporters such as Australia and South Africa seem to be ill-prepared for the upcoming decline in global coal demand;

Even if China's domestic thermal coal consumption drops by 5-10%, it will be able to offset one third of the global coal seaborne market, thereby depressing coal prices in the international market.

The research project has been collaborating with leading research institutions in the six largest coal consuming countries-China, India, South Africa, Australia, Poland and Germany-to evaluate current policies in accordance with the Paris Agreement and formulate economically feasible and socially just Way to phase out thermal coal by 2050.

The Chinese part of the research project is implemented by Tsinghua University. China’s country studies point out that if policies to control coal use can be further implemented, China’s carbon emissions will peak in 2025 and begin to decline, which is earlier than China’s Paris Agreement commitments (2030). According to estimates, to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in 2025, China’s coal consumption needs to peak in 2020 and decline rapidly thereafter. At the policy level, China needs to further use market mechanisms to eliminate outdated coal production capacity, while further promoting electrification and achieving low-carbon power industry. Coal power projects that are already in operation need to pay special attention to the risk of stranded assets.

IDDRI project coordinator Oliver Sartor said: “The analysis of experts from these six countries all show that if there are correct policies, in the next 20-30 years, the power sector of all six countries can almost completely Eliminate coal without significantly increasing the cost of electricity for consumers.

"For example, in India, there is evidence that small power grids based on renewable energy provide the poor with a more reliable and cheaper power supply, and bring economic development and human health benefits.

"Our analysis found that the most likely situation at present is that global thermal coal demand will peak and begin to decline in the early to mid-2020s. This will be caused by the rebalancing of the Chinese economy and the impact of developing countries on air and soil quality and water supply. Increasing attention and declining renewable energy costs are driven by many factors.

For example, the report cites recent research showing that by 2030, 70% of the world’s people who lack electricity can obtain electricity cheaper than coal or gas-fired power plants through small-scale renewable energy and battery solutions.

Depending on the country, the use of thermal coal can be replaced by a range of other options, including the development of clean energy, improving energy efficiency, and in some cases, carbon capture and storage technologies.

Participating institutions of coal transformation project

Project coordination agency:

French Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDRRI)

UK Climate Strategies (Climate Strategies)

National research institutions:

Tsinghua University, China

Ahmedabad School of Management, India

Allahabad Institute of Information Technology, India

Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town, South Africa

Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Melbourne Institute of Sustainable Society, University of Melbourne, Australia

Polish Institute of Structure

German Institute of Economics in Berlin, Germany

This article is transferred from Southern Energy Watch

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